An analysis of a recently conducted WCAX poll undertaken by University of Vermont Political Science Professor Anthony Gierzynski shows that the Vermont Governor’s race is still wide open, and that when the margin of error is taken into account, three of the Democratic candidates are statistically tied with the Republican Lieutenant Governor, Brian Dubie.
“We are delighted with the outcome of the poll, particularly considering this higher level of analysis,” said David Babbott, Campaign Coordinator for the Matt Dunne campaign. “Matt has significantly lower name recognition than the Lt. Governor and the other front runners, yet it is now clear he has as good a chance as any of them to win in November.”
The analysis shows that Sec. of State Deb Markowitz, Sen. Doug Racine and Matt Dunne are all statistically tied with Dubie. Sen. Susan Bartlett and Sen. Pro Tem Peter Shumlin were the only ones to actually lose to Dubie in the trial heat.
The real meaning of the WCAX poll has come under increased scrutiny lately as Secretary of State Deb Markowitz has tried to claim that her numbers in the poll make her the only candidate who can win in November, mentioning the results in recent candidate forums and placing them prominently on the front page of her campaign website.
“These results plainly indicate that there is no clear Democratic frontrunner, which is very typical at this early stage of a primary race,” said John Whaley from Garin Hart Yang Research Group, a DC-based polling firm that has worked with Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Patrick Leahy, and candidates across the country. “I can certainly understand why the Secretary of State would want to encourage people to think she’s got this race locked up, but her claim that she is the only candidate polling ahead of Dubie is statistically untrue.”
The Dunne campaign has been taking steps to continue to boost name recognition around Vermont, and was also the only campaign to have volunteers engaging voters on Town Meeting Day as they left polling locations in 5 counties. Dunne, who won an upset primary in 2006, already has dozens of volunteers devoting many hours of their time every week to the campaign.
“We know there is a long way to the primary,” said Margaret Kannenstine, Co-Chair of Matt Dunne for Vermont. “We are just delighted that at this early stage Matt is among the leading candidates and also clearly has the greatest opportunity to attract new supporters. With his history of field organizing, that is exactly where we want to be.”
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