Friday, March 5, 2010

MSNBC's First Read Friday Predictions

*** First Read’s Top 10 House Takeovers: If it’s Friday, it’s another First Read Top 10 list -- this time our look at what we consider the 10 most likely congressional districts to switch parties in November:

1. LA-2 (R-Cao): The Vietnamese-American, who surprisingly won this African-American majority district that was held by convicted William Jefferson, has been a Democratic target since his 2008 victory and is facing an uphill battle.
2. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon): The retirement of Democrat Bart Gordon makes this GOP-leaning district a nearly automatic pick-up for Republicans.
3. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle): Mike Castle’s decision to run for the Senate gives Democrats an excellent chance of winning Delaware’s sole congressional seat.
4. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon): Once again, a Senate committee's gain is the congressional committee's loss. Rep. Charlie Melancon's decision to run against David Vitter for Senate gives the GOP another good takeover opportunity.
5. IN-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth): Brad Ellsworth's decision to run for the Senate seat opened up by Evan Bayh's exit puts this once-longtime GOP seat potentially back in the Republican column.
6. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa): Whatever freshman Eric Massa's reason for not running for reelection, his retirement gives the GOP a very good chance in this Upstate New York district McCain carried in ‘08.
7. MD-1 (D-Kratovil): Freshman Frank Kratovil, who eked out a narrow victory in ‘08, looks to be in danger in this traditionally Republican district. Obama may have won the state overwhelmingly, but McCain won the district 58%-40%. And there won't be an Obama surge this time.
8. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk): The third-best chance for Democrats this cycle is Mark Kirk's old seat; Kirk is running for the Senate.
9. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore): Another retirement. Dennis Moore's decision to not run for re-election has given the GOP yet another target. And Democrats still don't have a candidate. Some think the best Dem could be Moore's wife, but she hasn't committed.
10. OH-15 (D-Kilroy): This perennial target seat could be switching hands, as the incumbent Democrat here underperformed Obama in 2008

*** Top 10 House Toss-Ups: Here, in alphabetical order by state, are what we consider to be the 10 most competitive House districts, all of which are held by Democrats: CO-4 (D-Markey); ID-1 (D-Minnick); NM-2 (D-Teague); NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes); NV-3 (D-Titus); OH-1 (D-Driehaus); PA-7 (D-Open-Sestak);TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner); VA-5 (D-Perriello); and WA-3 (D-Open-Baird).

*** Top 10 Majority Makers: And here, in alphabetical order by state, are what we consider to be 10 districts -- where Democrats are currently favored -- that could tell us whether or not Republicans will win back control of the House: AZ-8 (D-Giffords); IA-3 (D-Boswell); MO-4 (D-Skelton); NY-1 (D-Bishop); OH-16 (D-Boccieri); OH-18 (D-Space); PA-8 (D-Murphy); SC-5 (D-Spratt); WV-1 (D-Mollohan); and WI-8 (D-Kagen).

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