MSNBC's Take

Dems lack votes, trust

From NBC's Ken Strickland

There is now more clarity on how Congressional Democrats plan to use reconciliation (recon) to push the comprehensive health care bill across the finish line. There are three steps:

Step No. 1: The House must pass the Senate's version of the bill.
Step No. 2: The House must pass a reconciliation bill that makes "fixes" and any other ideas from the president's proposal.
Step No. 3: The Senate must pass the same reconciliation bill as the House.

While the path for final passage may be clear, it's a perilous one, according to Democratic senators and staff. Two critical, intertwined components are missing within the Democratic ranks: votes and trust. And they're shackled together.

In order for House Dems to VOTE for the Senate bill (step #1), they have to TRUST the Senate to pass the fixes through recon (step #3). While the House must also pass recon (step #2), the rules allow them to do it in a way that insures the bill remains intact, without changes. Pelosi, using the rules, can limit or restrict the bill from being amended.

But in the Senate, recon is much more complicated. There, the rules allow for literally an endless number of amendments that can be offered. And equally important, there are more than a dozen ways things can be taken out through "budget points of order."

The fundamental question from House Democrats to their Senate counterparts: if we stick our necks out and pass the Senate bill and then pass the fixes, how can you guarantee those fixes will survive the Senate's meat grinder known as reconciliation?

The answer from the Senate: "We can't make that guarantee." No one can.

"That's one of the needles we'll have to thread," Chuck Schumer said today, but added, "There are some ideas."

The easiest solution would be for the Senate to do recon first, proving what it was capable of passing. But after much discussion between the two chambers about the Congressional rules, sources say, the general consensus is the House must go first.

Another option that's been discussed is having at least 51 Democrats sign a letter to Pelosi saying essentially, 'We promise to vote for the fixes the House wants." Asked about such a letter yesterday, Sen. Dick Durbin said, "I don't know if it's a letter, but we have to make it clear to the speaker that we have 51 votes."

But the central problem remains, even if such a letter is sent: the Senate cannot guarantee the recon bill they start with will be the one they pass. And if changes are made to the Senate bill, the recon bill would have to go back to the house.