AR-Sen: Lincoln still under 50 percent

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/22-24 results)

Democratic primary MoE 5%

Blanche Lincoln (D) 45 (44)
Bill Halter (D) 33 (31)
Other 6 (0)
Undecided 16 (25)

Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion among Democrats

Lincoln 65/31/4 (62/34/6)
Halter 69/11/23 (68/10/27)

That +1 gain for Halter in the horserace is well within the poll's margin of error, and presents nothing more than float. The favorabilities are actually quite the story -- the Lincoln campaign has been relentlessly negative on Halter, yet none of that mud (all of it ridiculous and false) has tainted Halter. He's shrugged off all attacks with nary a problem.

On the other side, Lincoln has faced a barrage of negative ads from Halter allies in labor, yet those have done little to damage Lincoln. In fact, she's up a net +6 in her favorabilities. Apparently, Arkansas Democrats aren't paying too much attention to the negativity.

On the other hand, we've seen "other" shoot up from nothing two weeks ago, to six percent this week. That "other" is D.C. Morrison, who scored 10 percent in a poll for Arkansas business publication Talk Business. Morrison is a no-name conservadem spending no money in the race. But in a race turning nasty, he's starting to pick up support by virtue of not being the other two candidates.

Morrison may end up being a player in this race -- Arkansas requires 50+1 percent to win. If no candidate gets an outright majority, there will be a runoff three weeks later. Right now, Lincoln is still far from 50 percent, and while Halter may not have gained significant ground the last two weeks, the underlying fundamentals are still in his favor -- undecideds almost always break against the incumbent.

Halter's big challenge -- how can he raise Lincoln's unfavorabilities without tainting his own? Going negative is a two-edged sword, and thus far, Halter has avoided slinging the mud himself, leaving that up to his allies.

In the general:

Blanche Lincoln (D) 43 (42)
John Boozman (R) 50 (49)

Bill Halter (D) 41 (40)
John Boozman (R) 48 (48)

Blanche Lincoln (D) 42 (43)
Kim Hendren (R) 49 (48)

Bill Halter (D) 43 (44)
Kim Hendren (R) 46 (45)

Blanche Lincoln (D) 41 (41)
Gilbert Baker (R) 48 (49)

Bill Halter (D) 43 (44)
Gilbert Baker (R) 45 (46)

Blanche Lincoln (D) 43 (44)
Curtis Coleman (R) 46 (47)

Bill Halter (D) 44 (45)
Curtis Coleman (R) 43 (44)

Blanche Lincoln (D) 43 (43)
Tom Cox (R) 46 (47)

Bill Halter (D) 44 (45)
Tom Cox (R) 43 (43)

Not much change, just tiny float within the margin of error. But look at the favorabilities:

Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion among all voters

Lincoln (D) 43/53/4 (42/52/6)
Halter (D) 47/30/23 (46/27/27)
Boozman (R) 45/31/24 (44/30/26)

Lincoln is still a failed politician, hated by her state. Independents rate her at 41/57/2. Halter has a 46/30/24 favorability rating among independents. Boozman, the most likely Republican nominee, is at 45/29/26 with the indies.

Lincoln doesn't stand a chance in the general with numbers like that. Halter remains the most popular politician in this race, more so than the probably Republican nominee, and is essentially tied among independents with Boozman.

If we want to win this thing in November, our best chance is still with Halter.