Great News from Arkansas

The newest poll in the Arkansas Senate Race has great news for Bill Halter. The Research 2000/Daily Kos poll shows him with leading Blanche Lincoln, 47% to 44%. This is the second poll since the primary on May 18 that shows Bill Halter ahead of Blanche Lincoln and he just keeps picking up momentum.

Also in this poll was good news for the general election. The poll shows that Bill Halter is the only viable Democrat for November. He is doing almost twice as well as Blanche Lincoln is against John Boozman. The race for this seat won't be an easy one, but if Blanche Lincoln wins on June 8 it will be much harder for Democrats to keep this seat.

Click here for more information on the poll.

A Grassroots Victory in Arkansas

Wow! What a great night for progressive grassroots politics. Bill Halter showed the country that grassroots politics means more than any type of corporate or special interest support. He held an incumbent US Senator to under 50% of the vote and he did it thanks to grassroots activists. We’re thrilled to keep working with Bill Halter as we head toward the runoff election on June 8 and another win for the progressive grassroots.

West Coast senators move to bar new Pacific drilling

WASHINGTON — Senators from California, Oregon and Washington united Thursday behind a plan to ban new offshore drilling along the Pacific Coast in response to the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

Their push, which joins a similar House effort with the backing of 20 Democrats, could gain traction in Congress as public outrage grows about the April 20 explosion on an offshore drilling rig near Louisiana that left 11 workers dead and unleashed an oil spill that threatens the Gulf Coast.

The Pacific Coast senators were unified to “make sure that there will never be offshore oil and gas drilling off the West Coast of our nation,” said Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. “We know this can happen again,” Boxer said, while gesturing to a poster-size photo of boats spraying water on the flame-engulfed Deepwater Horizon rig.

Boxer's bill would bar the federal government from issuing any leases for exploration, development or production of oil or natural gas in any area off the West Coast.

The measure would apply only to new leases in federal waters. It would not bar oil companies from expanding drilling on current leases and it would not apply to drilling decisions within state waters, which typically extend three miles out from the shore.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., linked the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico to the 1969 blowout of a well near Santa Barbara, which triggered a nationwide backlash against offshore drilling. That was “a seminal moment for us,” Feinstein said. And now, “the BP disaster has shown that . . . By JENNIFER A. DLOUHY

President Barack Obama announced plans in March to expand offshore drilling in new areas of the Atlantic and Arctic oceans, as well as the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although he specifically ruled out new federal drilling leases off the Pacific Coast and in some areas near Alaska, nothing in federal law limits exploration in the region.

That's because Congress allowed a decades-old statutory moratorium on new drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific shores to expire in 2008, amid soaring oil prices. A statutory ban on drilling near the Florida Gulf Coast is set to expire in 2022.

Right now, the only safeguard is Obama's assurance that new federal drilling will be barred in the Pacific, Boxer said. “There is no permanent protection,” she said.

The West Coast lawmakers — including Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., and Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore. — said they would try to advance the legislation as part of any energy bill that moves through the Senate. One prime candidate: a climate change and energy measure that was unveiled Wednesday.

But that climate measure would only give states the power to bar drilling 75 miles off their shores — farther than the typical three-mile barrier, but still far less than the unlimited, permanent ban the West Coast senators seek.

Any change to the climate change bill's offshore drilling proposals threatens to undermine the entire measure, which already faces long odds in the Senate.

Drilling advocates in Congress have warned that any move to shut off offshore production could jeopardize the U.S. economy and heighten the nation's reliance on foreign sources of oil.

“We do not want to have people have to import more and more foreign oil,” said Rep. Joe Barton, R-Ennis. “Whether we like it or not, the only real place to find significant additional oil deposits in meaningful quantities is in the outer continental shelf.”

Nationwide, support for offshore drilling still remains strong, despite the Gulf spill. Six in 10 Americans back expanded ocean drilling, according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday.

Source.

AR-Sen: Runoff bound

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/26-28 results)

Democratic primary, likely Democratic voters, MoE 5%

Blanche Lincoln (D) 46 (43)
Bill Halter (D) 37 (35)
D.C. Morrison 6 (7)
Undecided 11 (15)

Seems like much treading water compared to two weeks ago, both candidates have inched up. Lincoln will desperately try to capture enough of that undecided vote to get her above 50 percent and avoid the runoff. I'll call it right now -- she won't get to 50. I suspect she'll be around 44-45 percent.

Now remember that the Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Job Security have been spending millions in sleazy ads, while Lincoln herself has been hurling everything up against the wall, hoping something would stick. On the other side, labor unions have been pummeling Lincoln. And yet...

Favorable/Unfavorable among likely Democratic primary voters

Blanche Lincoln 61/35 (59/33)
Bill Halter 65/17 (66/14)

Halter still has the edge on favorabilities -- his trump card in the primary (and runoff). But beyond that, look a the trend lines. Primary voters are completely ignoring all the mud on the airwaves. The millions spent are having ZERO impact on the primary. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this.

Harkin Education Bill

Subject: Fighting for our children's future

---

May 13, 2010 There is no denying that times are hard. While the economy is starting to slightly improve, a full recovery isn't in the near future. But let me be clear; economic hardship is no reason to punish our children by cutting vital education funding. When we do that, we risk our country's future! Across America, tens of thousands of teachers are facing imminent layoffs because of devastating cuts to state funding. If we don't act now these layoffs will result in larger class sizes, programs being cut from schools, and a drastic decline in the quality of education that our children receive. A quality education for our children is vital to rebuilding and reinvigorating our economy. Recognizing the danger of losing tens of thousands of trained teachers, 21st Century Democrats Co-founder SenatorTom Harkin (D-IA) has introduced a bill entitled "Keep Our Educators Working Act" (S. 3206). When announcing the bill, Senator Harkin said, "This country is about to face a massive wave of layoffs in our schools and institutions of higher learning that could weaken our economic recovery and cause serious damage to our education system. This bill is an investment in our kids, in our economy and in our future." This bill is quickly approaching a key vote in the Appropriations Committee, and teachers across the country need your help now. We need to send a message that we support our teachers and want the Senate to pass Senator Harkin's bill. Contact your Senators today, and tell them to support the "Keep Our Educators Working Act" S.3206. Our teachers and our children need your help now. To learn more about this bill, click here. Click Here to contact your Senators! Donate now and help us keep fighting for our children's future. Sincerely, Jim Scheibel, Chair P.S. - Click here to forward this to a friend and ask them to help protect our children's education. Contact Information Phone: 202-626-5620 Website: 21st Century Democrats Paid for by 21st Century Democrats 1731 Connecticut Avenue, NW, 2nd Floor Washington, D.C. 20009 (202) 626-5620 http://21stcenturydems.org/ Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

Lincoln, Halter, gear up for Arkansas runoff

Less than a week before their Senate primary, Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter are preparing for their acrimonious contest to head into overtime.

With recent polls showing Lincoln with less than the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid a runoff as a relatively unknown conservative candidate has gained his support at her expense, Arkansas observers say a second election on June 8 between the two top finishers is increasingly likely.

“Certainly, a runoff election remains a distinct possibility,” acknowledged Lincoln campaign manager Steve Patterson in a memo. “The fact that Senator Lincoln has withstood two months of negative attacks from well-funded outside groups and still remains in a strong position is a testament to her toughness and popularity among Arkansas voters,” he added.

Meanwhile, Halter’s campaign is raising expectations for Lincoln, who held a 12-point lead over Halter in a Mason-Dixon survey released last week.

“It’s a huge defeat for Sen. Lincoln if she ends up in a runoff. It means more than half of Arkansas primary voters decided against a sitting U.S. Senator, which means they are clearly ready for a change,” said Halter spokeswoman Laura Chapin.

D.C. Morrison, who is running as a conservative alternative opposed to the Democratic health care overhaul and supportive of the FAIR tax, may be gaining more traction than expected because of the nasty over-the-airwaves back-and-forth between Lincoln and Halter.

The Lincoln campaign estimates that outside labor groups like AFSCME, SEIU and the Communication Workers of America, have spent nearly $3.7 million dollars on ads targeting the second term senator. The liberal group Bold Progressives blasted an e-mail to activists Wednesday asking them to add another $125,000 to that total to help fund Halter’s get-out-the-vote operation.

Meanwhile, the Halter campaign filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission this week asking the Virginia-based group Americans for Job Security reveal who is funding its hard-hitting ad that features Indians thanking the candidate for “outsourcing jobs” to their country.

“I suspect there’s a small but potentially crucial percentage of Democratic primary voters who have been turned off by the two top contenders,” said Paul Berry, a longtime Little Rock lobbyist who is supporting Lincoln. “The campaign ads have been so negative, it will not surprise me if there is a runoff. It’s the third candidate who has improved.”

Alan Hughes, the president of the state’s AFL-CIO, agreed that the little known Morrison could play a critical role in Tuesday’s outcome.

“With Morrison in right now, I think he’s going to take enough from her that yeah, we’ll keep her under 50 percent. I can’t see not having a runoff with three candidates in,” Hughes said.

One state official, who did not want to be identified prognosticating, said the bottom line is that “Lincoln’s campaign is hoping to eke out 50 percent and Halter’s campaign is praying for a runoff.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article misidentified the group that emailed activists Wednesday on behalf of Halter.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37164.html#ixzz0npBJb51R

Former Bernie Sanders Chief of Staff Jeff Weaver Endorses Dunne for Governor

WHITE RIVER JUNCTION – Jeff Weaver, former Chief of Staff in Senator Bernie Sanders’ House and Senate offices and Sanders’ former campaign manager, endorsed Matt Dunne for Governor today.

Weaver released the following statement endorsing Dunne:

“For some 20 years I stood beside Bernie Sanders, including as his House and Senate Chief of Staff and as his 2006 Campaign Manager. With the support of people like you, we brought Bernie’s powerful and effective voice to the U.S. Senate, and it has made a huge difference for people in Vermont and across the nation.

“Now I’m supporting Matt Dunne’s run for Vermont Governor.

“Matt Dunne has the energy and ideas to move Vermont into a new era. He’s not afraid to take on those who want government to work for the people at the top instead of working families, family farmers, the small business community, seniors and women. Matt has the executive leadership necessary to take charge on day one to help revitalize Vermont’s economy and bring jobs back to our state.

“But being right on the issues, or having the right management style isn’t enough. The question is: Who has the real world experience needed to help our state take advantage of the opportunities of the 21st century?

“It’s Matt Dunne.

“If Bernie Sanders taught me one thing in my 20 years by his side, it’s this: Change will only come when Vermonters standing together elect candidates with vision, candidates committed to the well-being of ordinary Vermonters, candidates who are willing to truly fight on our behalf. I believe Matt Dunne will bring those qualities to Vermont as Governor.”

Dunne continues to attract endorsements and support from people with broad political backgrounds.

“Bernie Sanders has been a long-time advocate for working people in Vermont and I think Jeff Weaver’s endorsement shows Matt Dunne can be a champion for working Vermonters in Montpelier,” Kevin O’Holleran, campaign manager for the Matt Dunne campaign, said.

“Matt is capable of building coalitions in order to get things done. The high-profile endorsements he has received over the past several weeks – Bill McKibben, Hirem Allen and now Jeff Weaver – show Matt can bring all different types of people together to win this November and lead Vermont into a new era as Governor,” O’Holleran said.

Dunne thanked Weaver for his support and his service to the state of Vermont.

“Jeff worked tirelessly for many years as a public servant and I thank him for his all he has done for Vermont with Senator Sanders. His endorsement gives this campaign another boost of momentum and I think him for his strong support,” Dunne said.

Crowded Republican field targets Alan Grayson

Freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) has drawn national attention from his provocative comments geared to his left-wing base and made himself a target for Republicans in November.

But for now the GOP is focusing on sorting out the crowded field of candidates in the competitive Orlando-area district – a field that was upended when Daniel Webster entered the race several days before the state’s April 30 filing deadline. Webster, a widely-respected conservative leader who has been both state House speaker and state Senate majority leader, was once viewed as a field-clearer when he mulled the race last year but his indecision has created a logjam of credible candidates

Among them are businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, who raised more than $300,000 in the first quarter of 2010, and state Rep. Kurt Kelly, along with four other lesser-known Republicans.

Kelly says he's committed to staying in the race until the Aug. 24 primary, despite the risk of being overshadowed by Webster as the two compete for conservative votes – and raised some fresh questions about Webster’s electability against Grayson in an interview Tuesday with POLITICO.

“He’s never run a primary, he’s banking on a name and today being a 28-year incumbent is not necessarily strong. There’s a movement against that…He’s the Hall of Fame pitcher from years past and I’m the new phenom throwing the 103-mile-per-hour fastball,” Kelly said. “Grayson has got a tremendous amount of money, he’s got a loyal base of support so I think we have to put up the right person to win this race. It is not a walk, that’s a recipe for disaster. If people are saying anyone can beat Grayson, that is just not true.”

Webster has touted endorsements from former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, and O’Donoghue counts on the support from former Sen. Mel Martinez and former Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings.

But Kelly believes support from local legislators within the district – including several who mulled over the race, like state Reps. Eric Eisnaugle and Steve Precourt – is more significant. He also met with the Club for Growth Tuesday which endorses fiscally-conservative candidates.

“If the endorsement game were the key to victory, then I’d win because I have key legislators and local folks in the district that are endorsing me now. That’s on the ground people in politics today, and I think that’s more powerful than a name or someone in a different city, a different area, or a different time,” Kelly said.

Kelly argued that his base in Marion County, rather than Orange County, where Orlando is located, will play to his advantage in a primary, with Webster and O’Donoghue poised to split the Orange County vote.

He downplayed his early money disadvantage against O’Donoghue, questioning whether he could keep up his pace now that Webster is in the race. And he argued that money shouldn’t be the defining measure of a candidate in this race, since whoever emerges as the nominee should be well-stocked with cash, given the interest of national Republicans in donating money to Grayson’s eventual opponent.

“I’m not intimidated by this guy, we’re going to go after him. He’s got this plethora of vulgarity and trash that the citizens already know about. All I need to do is remind them, and we will,” Kelly said.

Bill Halter: The Choice

Labor unions rally behind Bill Halter in Senate Democratic primary in Arkansas

By Philip Rucker

Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, May 10, 2010; 11:07 PM

LITTLE ROCK -- Frustrated that Congress has not enacted a more liberal agenda under big Democratic majorities, national labor unions are making a high-stakes stand this primary season in a most unlikely place: Arkansas.

This small Southern state is more Mississippi than Michigan, a right-to-work jurisdiction where Wal-Mart was born and where unions have never been particularly powerful.

Nevertheless, labor is blanketing the airwaves here with multimillion-dollar expenditures designed to deny Sen. Blanche Lincoln a third term in the May 18 Democratic primary. In a mark of their unhappiness with Lincoln -- and their limited options -- they are rallying behind Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who is hardly a poster boy for progressivism.

"I'm conservative on some issues and I'm progressive on others," Halter said in an interview at the annual Toad Suck Daze festival in Conway, Ark. "In terms of fiscal policy, I'm as conservative as anyone -- and I'm more conservative than the incumbent."

Labor organizers said they are so furious with moderate Democrats they will do anything to purge Lincoln. Her defeat, they said, would send a warning to Democrats everywhere that support from labor cannot be taken for granted.

"You do this to win, and Arkansas will be much better off with Bill Halter representing it," said Steve Rosenthal, a former political director of the AFL-CIO who is organizing anti-Lincoln efforts. "But short of that, the fact that Lincoln has had to fight this kind of fight, raise the money to do it . . . and to the extent that other senators see what's happening in Arkansas and think twice about it, this becomes -- win, lose or draw -- a very important fight."

The stakes here are high. The AFL-CIO, Service Employees International Union and other groups are eager to demonstrate that they have enough political punch to defeat lawmakers who cross them on key issues such as health care. But Lincoln has led by about 10 points in recent public polls. Like most incumbents, she is well-financed -- with $3.1 million in the bank as of last week, compared with Halter's $558,147 -- and has built a formidable grass-roots operation, particularly in rural communities.

And it is an open question whether the labor support for Halter will translate to high voter turnout on Election Day. If Halter loses, his challenge from the left ironically could boost Lincoln in a general election. "He has really acted as her foil," said Janine A. Parry, a political scientist at the University of Arkansas. "Republicans were having a heyday painting her as part of the Reid-Pelosi-Obama cabal. So in some ways, it was a perverse blessing for her that he entered the race."

But Jon Youngdahl, national political director of SEIU, which is running more than $1 million in ads across the state, said, "It doesn't do us any good to conjecture what it means if we lose." The race, he said, is a symbol of "the frustration that people have had with the vote in favor of the Bush bailouts, then the long delays in getting health-care enacted, the lack of attention to job creation and the inability to pass [the] Employee Free Choice Act."

Lincoln is one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents this cycle. Eight Republicans are seeking the GOP nomination to face her in November. Her standing among some Democrats eroded because she threatened to filibuster the public insurance option, and her support for health-care legislation wavered even though she ultimately voted to pass the bill.

Interviewed after campaigning in Texarkana, Lincoln said she votes to please Arkansans, not the Democratic Party or unions. "I'm glad to be a part of the Democratic Party and I always have been," she said. "But one of the things I am proud about the Democratic Party is that it's a wide tent, and I may not agree with them 100 percent on everything. I don't think Arkansans do."

The race has become something of a proxy war between labor unions and groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which is running positive ads touting Lincoln's record on small businesses. Another pro-business group, Americans for Job Security, is running a controversial spot featuring Indian American actors that critics lambasted for playing up ethnic stereotypes.

For all the talk of Halter as some progressive paragon, Halter is an imperfect representative of the liberal values of the unions and other groups, including MoveOn.org, that are fueling his campaign.

The failure of the Employee Free Choice Act, the so-called "card check" bill that would make it easier for unions to organize workplaces, is a key reason why labor abandoned Lincoln. She was an original sponsor but later came out against the legislation.

Halter's position on the issue is unclear. Asked about it in an interview, Halter did not say how he would vote because the bill "is no longer being discussed." Halter said he favors a compromise that includes imposing sanctions on those who try to inhibit "democratic elections."

"I don't see Halter as being ideologically liberal at all," said Hal Bass, a political scientist at Ouachita Baptist University. "He is simply falling heir to some anti-Lincoln sentiment on the left side of the spectrum. They think he's not Blanche, so he must be different from her in his ideological orientations, but it's hard to tell."

On health-care reform (he said he would have voted for the public option) and abortion (he said he would protect a woman's right to choose), Halter is within the liberal mainstream. Still, he said he shuns the label -- smartly, perhaps.

"If Bill Halter is the nominee, you can bet the Republicans will paint him as a flaming liberal," said Harvey Joe Sanner, a Prairie County rice farmer and Democratic activist who is supporting Lincoln. "It's going to be very difficult for someone depicted as a liberal to be elected in Arkansas."

The kind of Democrats who are successful here are smooth-talking populists. That explains why Lincoln spent more than an hour one recent morning at Old Tyme Burger in Texarkana, going table to table in the red-and-white-tile eatery asking for votes in her uniquely Arkansas drawl. She told stories of her father's soybean farm, of fishing trout and hunting ducks.

But her overtures may not be enough to win over Democrats torn over her highly publicized role in the health-care debate. She was one of 60 votes when the health-care bill passed the Senate in December, but in March she voted against the reconciliation measure that made it law.

"I voted for her before, but I will not vote for her again," said Lee Etta Lewis, 70, a kindergarten teacher who joined her fellow black sorority sisters at a recent political dinner in Little Rock.

She pointed to one of Lincoln's campaign fliers showing her with Obama, an endorser.

"Look at him with Blanche," Lewis said, shaking her head. "Now I feel like she has betrayed him."

Source

Why Big Business Is Scared Of Bill Halter

May 9th, 2010
By ARDem

If you haven’t noticed yet, and unless you’re completely oblivious there’s really no way not to, big business doesn’t like Bill Halter.

Last week we related how the United States Chamber of Commerce had bought television air time in Arkansas to support Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln. Ms. Lincoln is in a tough primary fight with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who has the backing of more liberal Democrats in Arkansas, as well as labor unions and other progressive organizations. The primary is May 18, and the race is considered by at least one local observer a toss-up.

At the time, we explained that the Chamber declined to share with The Agenda exactly how much it was spending on the ad. However, the business lobby was happy to tell the Federal Election Commission. (It’s not just a good idea. It’s the law.) So we will belatedly report that the Chamber spent $300,000 to produce and distribute the ad.

Meanwhile, a another self-identified business group has joined the Chamber in backing Ms. Lincoln (or at least in opposing Mr. Halter). Americans for Job Security, a “pro-growth, pro-jobs” organization that claims to represent “businesses, business leaders and entrepreneurs from around the country” (but declines to describe them further), has produced a 30-second commercial that contends a company for which Mr. Halter served as director “exported American jobs to India.” In the spot, Indians, in colorful Indian costumes, and over a distinctly Indian soundtrack, “thank” the lieutenant governor for bringing jobs to Bangalore. Unions backing Mr. Halter and some left-wing blogs, such as Firedoglake, have blasted the ad as racist, and even Ms. Lincoln called it offensive, although she essentially made the same charge in her own ad, albeit less colorfully.

There’s a reason why big business is piling on in this race. There’s a reason why they’re telling lies about outsourcing and bashing Halter for something they actually support as part of their unpopular agenda. It’s because they know the party is over if he wins. And it’s not just because Bill Halter is a real Democrat that will stand up for poor, working, and middle-class Arkansans/Americans. If he beats Blanche Lincoln, and wins in the general election against a pro-big business Republican, then the whole dynamic across the country changes. No longer do Democrats have to be “centrist”, meaning a stooge for the corporate agenda, to win in conservative areas. Bill Halter’s election will show that Democrats can win by being progressive populists, even in the South. And that, my friends, will be the death nail for the pro-big business status quo in this country. So what are you waiting for? Donate to Bill Halter on ActBlue and help get him along the finish line.

And you know, if I were Bill Halter, I’d be putting out an ad right now highlighting these groups opposition and WHY they are opposing him.

Poll: Kasich, Strickland in Ohio Dead Heat

Friday, 07 May 2010

For the second month in a row, Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland and Republican challenger John Kasich are essentially even in Ohio’s hotly contested race for governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state, taken Wednesday, finds Kasich again with 46% support and Strickland with 45%. Three percent (3%) of Ohio voters favor some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.

Until last month, Kasich had led Strickland by anywhere from six to 11 points in surveys stretching back to December. Both candidates were unchallenged for their party’s gubernatorial nominations in Tuesday’s state primary. According to news reports, informal vote tallies show Strickland with 620,953 votes from Democratic Primary voters, while GOP Primary voters cast 735,771 votes for Kasich.

Additional information from the survey will be released over the next week at RasmussenReports.com/Ohio.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on May 5, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Ohio voters favor a law like the one just adopted in Arizona that empowers local police to stop and check the immigration status of those they suspect of being illegal immigrants. Thirty-two percent (32%) oppose such a law. This is in line with views of the Arizona law nationally.

Kasich earns 62% of the votes of those who favor the immigration law. Strickland gets 74% support from those who oppose the law cracking down on illegal immigration. The political dynamics of this issue were highlighted in a CNN interview yesterday by Strickland warning national Democratic leaders about the potential political fallout of passing immigration reform or climate change legislation before the elections.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters in Ohio approve of the job Strickland is doing as governor, while 49% disapprove. This marks a very slight improvement from a month ago. This includes 13% who Strongly Approve of the job he is doing and 23% who Strongly Disapprove.

Fifteen percent (15%) of Ohio voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Strickland, while 22% view him Very Unfavorably. Just six percent (6%) have no opinion of the current governor.

Kasich is viewed Very Favorably by 21% and Very Unfavorably by nine percent (9%). But 22% of voters in the state don’t know enough about him to venture any kind of opinion.

Bill Halter Nearly Doubles Blanche Lincoln in Fundraising

By The Associated Press
5/6/2010

LITTLE ROCK - Democratic Senate hopeful Bill Halter's campaign says he raised nearly twice as much as Sen. Blanche Lincoln in April as the primary for her Arkansas seat approaches.

Halter's campaign announced Thursday he raised $579,761 between April 1 and April 28, the last reporting period before the May 18 primary. Halter spent more than $1 million and has $558,147 in the bank.

Lincoln's campaign reported that she raised $300,933 during the same period, and spent nearly $1.5 million. She has more than $3.1 million in the bank.

Both Lincoln and Halter's campaigns have been blanketing the state's airwaves with advertisements. Eight Republicans are seeking the GOP nomination for Lincoln's seat.

Thursday is the deadline for federal candidates in Arkansas to file their pre-primary fundraising reports.

Meek begins drawing a contrast

Off-shore drilling has long been a major issue in Florida, because of the beaches and because oil companies have eyed Florida waters for a long time.

And so Dem candidate Kendrick Meek is now seizing on the Gulf oil spill to call for a moratorium on expanded offshore drilling -- the start of an effort to draw a sharp contrast between himself and Republicans Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio:

Kendrick Meek is the only candidate who has consistently been against expanded drilling. The disaster in the Gulf just underscores the need for a moratorium on any new offshore drilling.

Please sign our petition and join with Kendrick today in demanding Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio call for a moratorium on expansion of oil drilling in the Gulf. In order to make real change, we need to stand together.

Rubio this weekend sounded moderate tones about the Gulf spill, but he said we should defer judgment before reaching any conclusions on offshore drilling. Crist, meanwhile, recently flip-flopped on the issue, withdrawing his support for drilling after previously saying he could support it if it were far enough off shore. Hence Meek's effort to point out that he's the only one who's "consistently" opposed offshore drilling.

Meek has several political imperatives: Make sure the Dem base remains as fired up as the GOP base is about this election. Get his low name recognition up and remind Florida Dems that he's consistently espoused Dem positions, in order to preempt Crist's efforts to win Dem support for his indy candidacy. And to paint Crist and Rubio as a kind of two-headed Republican creature, in contrast with his own longtime embrace of Democratic principles and priorities -- such as standing against expanded offshore drilling.

Source.

Senate OKs ban on use of taxpayer funds in bank bailouts

Amendment by Sen. Barbara Boxer to the financial overhaul bill gets bipartisan backing. In a hard-won compromise, the Senate also drops a proposed $50-billion fund to cover costs of liquidating firms.

By Janet Hook and Jim Puzzanghera, Tribune Washington Bureau

May 6, 2010

Reporting from Washington —

The Senate, opening debate Wednesday on amendments to the sweeping overhaul of Wall Street regulation, adopted a bipartisan compromise establishing new procedures for averting another financial meltdown like the 2008 crisis.

On a 96-1 vote, the Senate adopted an amendment by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) declaring that no taxpayer funds would be used to shore up failing financial institutions in the future.

The Senate also adopted, 93 to 5, a bipartisan compromise that dropped a proposed $50-billion fund to cover costs of liquidating failing firms — a fund that would have been financed by banks. Critics said the fund's existence would encourage future bailouts rather than prevent them.

With the adoption of those amendments — the first since the bill arrived on the Senate floor last week — the way was cleared for what is expected to be at least a week of debate on even more contentious issues.

Republicans want to scale back the bill's proposal to establish a bureau within the Federal Reserve to focus on consumer protection in investments and finance. Critics, backed by a ferocious lobbying campaign, also hope to change the bill's strict new rules and transparency requirements for derivatives, the complicated financial contracts that were a big part of the Wall Street meltdown.

But before turning to those issues, both parties wanted to address Republicans' charges that the bill did not do enough to close the door on future government bailouts. Dodd said those complaints were unfounded but said Boxer's amendment would put an "exclamation point" on the bill's intent.

Boxer, who is cutting a populist profile in her reelection campaign this year, said, "If there's one thing we should all be able to agree on, it is this: The American taxpayers should never again have to bail out Wall Street firms that gambled away our savings and wreaked havoc on our economy."

The one senator to oppose Boxer's amendment was Tom Coburn (R-Okla.).

Republicans insisted on further guarantees, which were included in the compromise agreed to by Dodd and Sen. Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, ranking Republican on the banking committee.

The five voting against that amendment were four Republicans — Coburn, John Cornyn of Texas, Jim DeMint of South Carolina and Orrin G. Hatch of Utah — and one Democrat, Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota.

The major change was the elimination of the $50-billion fund that would have been paid into by financial institutions to cover costs to the government if it seized and dismantled any large financial firm on the brink of bankruptcy.

The financial industry strongly opposed the fund, as did Shelby and other Republicans, who contended that having such a fund in place would make it easier to bail out companies in the future or to divert the money to other uses.

The House version of the legislation contains a $150-billion prepaid fund.

Brightening prospects for Gillibrand

New York's appointed senator now has the once-unlikely role of election favorite

By Jerry Zremski

News Washington Bureau Chief

WASHINGTON — These were supposed to be the worst of times for New York Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand, the times when she was supposed to be in a pitched fight for the Democratic nomination while awaiting a November battle against a Republican named Giuliani or Pataki or King.

Instead, she's breezing toward the nomination and a likely November battle against a guy named Blakeman or Malpass or DioGuardi.

If you just found yourself muttering "Who dat?" or "What gives?" you're not alone.

"It's a real head-scratcher," said Baruch College political scientist Doug Muzzio. "She looks really vulnerable — but uh-uh."

Fifteen months into her two-year term as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's appointed successor, Gillibrand is still so new to statewide politics that 41 percent of respondents in a Siena College poll last month said they either didn't know her or had no opinion about her.

Yet there's no doubt, political pros say, that she's now the favorite to win the special election in November for the last two years of Clinton's term.

Strong friends and strong fundraising, along with the state's heavy Democratic enrollment advantage and the unwillingness of big-name Republicans to take her on, have reversed the fortunes of a senator whose shelf life had been questioned since Day One.

"There's no question: It is going to be an uphill battle" to beat her, said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg.

Incongruously, Siena's latest poll on the race, in mid-April, showed that 40 percent of New Yorkers said they preferred someone other than Gillibrand in November. Thirty-three percent said they didn't know, and a mere 27 percent stood with the former congresswoman from the Hudson Valley.

Those poll numbers, however, ignore the political realities that have made Gillibrand surprisingly strong.

First and foremost, thanks to friends in high places, she's lacking the kind of Democratic primary challenge that many expected. Pressure from the White House prompted potential candidates such as Rep. Steve Israel, D-Hauppage, to forgo the race.

And in early March, former Tennessee Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. took a pass on it, too, saying that challenging Gillibrand might help Republicans win the seat.

Ford also referred to a "campaign to bully me out of the race," and when asked about such pressure from above last week, Democratic National Chairman Tim Kaine defended clearing the path for Gillibrand.

"I think the reason it was important was that she had been an ally of the president on key issues. She was willing to do the heavy lifting for the president on issues like the economic recovery and health care and other issues, as well," Kaine said. "And if somebody's fighting and has your back, then you need to have their back."

Planning TV ad blitz

Indeed, Gillibrand has remained a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate despite the wavering public mood about federal spending and health care.

She also has been a strong fundraiser, amassing $6 million as of March 31 for the start of her campaign. Law firms and investment banks provided her with more money than any other industries, according to a Center for Responsive Politics analysis of federal campaign data.

"Throughout her career, the senator has raised the resources necessary to win, and this campaign will be no different," said campaign spokesman Glen Caplin. "She is proud to have over 10,000 donors who share her vision for the future of New York and have contributed to her campaign."

Where Gillibrand gets her campaign cash
Source	Amount donated
Lawyers, law firms	$1,293,694
Securities, investment	$631,250
Retirees	$277,197
Real estate	$267,500
Miscellaneous finance	$230,700
Women's groups	$223,874
Entertainment industry	$213,875
Lobbyists	$177,242
Business services firms	$150,700
Computers, Internet companies	$138,195
Source: Center for Responsive Politics compilation of federal campaign finance data for the 2010 special Senate election

Democratic sources in the state expect her to use that money shortly to begin a television advertising campaign that's likely to portray her as a hardworking senator/mom with a deep involvement in issues touching the state's families.

Gillibrand confidants believe that TV ads can do what news coverage cannot: create a clear, positive image of the senator in the voters' minds.

Still, the poll numbers have cause for concern. Notably, even against a little-known opponent such as former Nassau County Legislator Bruce A. Blakeman, she failed to crack the 50 percent mark in the recent Siena poll.

"I think people are still getting to know Sen. Gillibrand," Caplin said. "And when they do, they will see that she takes a back seat to nobody in fighting for New York."

Big-name Republicans such as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Gov. George E. Pataki surely could have raised the funds to counter Gillibrand's coming media blitz, but they passed on the race, as did a veteran GOP congressman, Peter T. King of Long Island.

"The problem is, they don't have a team," Muzzio said of the Republicans. "They don't have a bench" from which to draw strong potential candidates.

Asked why he had not been able to recruit a big-name GOP candidate, the head of the GOP's Senate campaign committee, Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, noted that the filing deadline for the race had not yet passed. He said he still had not given up on fielding a strong challenger to Gillibrand.

"I think this will not be so much a competition ... between the candidates, but a referendum on the size of the federal government," Cornyn said. "Kirsten Gillibrand is extremely vulnerable. Not only is she not particularly well-known, she is vulnerable for voting in lock step with the Obama administration. So I think we still have a shot there."

At this point, three Republican candidates — who will seek the party's nod at its state convention in June, and perhaps in a September primary — are vying to challenge Gillibrand:

• Blakeman, 54, a longtime Long Island politician who ran unsuccessfully for state comptroller in 1998. He is now a lawyer in New York City.

The first of the three candidates to jump into the field, Blakeman has lined up endorsements from a host of politicians from across the state, including King and former three-term GOP Sen. Alfonse M. D'Amato.

Using personal funds

Blakeman, however, had only $317,683 on hand as of March 31. He did not respond to a request to comment, but in a visit to Buffalo in March, he said he can overcome the Democratic enrollment advantage of 25 percentage points that gives Gillibrand a head start.

"It's doable because people are angry and frustrated about the future of this country," he said, pointing to concern over deficits and government spending. "What's important is economic development and job creation."

• David R. Malpass, 54, a New York economist who held mid-level appointments in the administrations of Presidents Ronald and George H.W. Bush. He believes that the time is right for a proven budget hawk to be elected to the Senate.

Malpass sports support from Jimmy Kemp, a son of the late Rep. Jack F. Kemp, R-Hamburg, and formal endorsements from one-time presidential candidate Steve Forbes and one-time gubernatorial candidate John J. Faso. Not surprisingly, Malpass bills himself as a "pro-growth, pro-jobs fiscal conservative" in the Kemp mold.

"The country is facing a huge problem in terms of Washington spending," he said. "And it's killing jobs in New York State."

Malpass had $1.07 million on hand for his race as of March 31, but $1 million of it had come from his own personal funds.

• Joseph J. DioGuardi, 70, the first practicing certified public accountant elected to Congress. After serving two terms, he was defeated in 1988. He later wrote a book, "Unaccountable Congress," and founded a nonprofit, Truth in Government, that reveals how Congress allocates federal funds.

Like Malpass, he's making fiscal responsibility a centerpiece of his campaign.

"We're mortgaging the next generation," he said.

DioGuardi had $974,223 on hand for his campaign as of March 31, but $946,243 of it came from his own funds. His effort has resonated with Conservative Party leaders statewide, and many have endorsed him.

Still, the candidate's daughter — "American Idol" judge Kara DioGuardi — is better known than he is.

"I'm proud of her, and she's proud of me," DioGuardi said. "She followed her dream, and now she's supporting me as I follow mine."

Keith Ellison rips "fascist, racist" Arizona immigration law

Add Rep. Keith Ellison's voice to the critics in Minnesota of Arizona's breathing-while-Mexican anti-immigration law.

The fifth district congressman called the Arizona measure fascist and racist in a brief and passionate appearance during a protest over the weekend in Loring Park.

"We must have immigration reform, humane immigration reform this year, right now," he told the crowd.

"The fact is we have to fight against this repressive law in Arizona," he added, as the crowd cheered. "We have to stop these fascist, racist laws."

Last week, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak called the Arizona measure a danger to city workers visiting the state and asked his department heads to cancel travel plans to Arizona for the time being. St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman ordered a travel ban to the state for all city workers on official business.

Over the right, it's a different story. Tom Emmer, the GOP-endorsed candidate for governor called the Arizona law "a wonderful first step," and state Rep. Steve Drazkowski wants to copy it here.

"I have reviewed the Arizona law and am in the process of drafting a parallel bill," he told us yesterday. "The Democrats won't let us pass it, but we'll get some discussion started on it, and then after the elections, I expect we'll have a legislature that will be ready to pass it."

Drazkowski may want to heap scorn on the Democrats, but the truth is that conservative Republicans ranging from Texas Gov. Rick Perry to former White House strategist Karl Rove are questioning the wisdom of the Arizona law.

Here's some video of Ellison's speech:

Ted Strickland: Good Work

Halter, Lincoln In Furious Fight For Ark. Senate

Little Rock, Arkansas - The fight for the Democratic Senate nomination in Arkansas has turned into a pitched battle between one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country and a challenger backed by some of the groups on the left that she's angered.

Early voting for Arkansas' May 18 primaries begins Monday, and the Democratic Senate primary matchup has turned into one of the most closely watched races in the country.

The unknown factor in the race between Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is whether a third candidate D.C. Morrison of Little Rock could force a runoff on June 8 by siphoning off enough votes.

Even before Halter announced in early March that he would challenge Lincoln in the Democratic primary, she was viewed as a ripe target for Republicans. As Lincoln's approval numbers fell to their lowest numbers, eight Republicans lined up seek the GOP nomination for her seat.

Lincoln had faced criticism from conservatives for her support of a proposed health care overhaul, while groups on the left such as MoveOn.Org targeted her for her opposition to climate change legislation and to a public option as part of the health reforms.

Lincoln has presented herself as the victim of special interests on the right and the left.

"Outside special interests on both extremes are plotting today to gain control of this Senate seat representing you, the people of Arkansas," Lincoln told supporters in March at a rally before filing for re-election. "I know it, because I am the rope in the tug of war, folks."

The pressure has put Lincoln in the most precarious position of her Senate tenure. Lincoln, who served two terms in the House in the early 1990s, was elected to the Senate in 1998 after defeating Republican nominee Fay Boozman the brother of Congressman John Boozman, who's seeking the GOP nod for Lincoln's post.

Lincoln won re-election in 2004 by defeating Republican Jim Holt, a former state senator who is also seeking the Republican Senate nomination. Halter defeated Holt in the lieutenant governor's race two years later.

The University of Arkansas' annual Arkansas Poll in November reported that that just 43 percent of those polled approve of the job Lincoln is doing as senator, the lowest rating she has seen since she took office in 1999.

The pressure came as Lincoln earned a more prestigious role in the Senate. She was picked in 2009 as the chairman of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, making her the first woman to lead that panel and the first Arkansan.

One of Lincoln's most high-profile victories in that role was the committee's passage of her proposal to limit banks' ability to profit from derivatives which are complex financial tools.

Halter, a one-term lieutenant governor, is a former Clinton administration official, having served as a deputy commissioner and acting commissioner of the federal Social Security Administration. He was elected lieutenant governor in 2006 after briefly considering a run for governor against Mike Beebe, who won the post.

Halter ran for the state's No. 2 job primarily on his idea to establish a state-run lottery to raise money for college scholarships. When lawmakers balked at the proposal, Halter spearheaded a campaign for the lottery amendment, which voters approved in 2008. Arkansas began selling lottery tickets last year, and will award the first scholarships funded by the games this fall.

Halter's bid has the backing of labor unions and other groups that said they grew dissatisfied with Lincoln, particularly over her opposition to a key union-organizing legislation. Though Lincoln ran in 2004 with the backing of the Arkansas AFL-CIO, the national union and its state arm are both backing Halter over Lincoln.

The union support has become part of the fight between the two, with Lincoln claiming Halter isn't being straightforward on what he promised the unions for their support.

"D.C. labor unions have made themselves an issue in this election by spending over $4 million of their workers' hard-earned dues in Arkansas on behalf of Bill Halter attacking me," Lincoln told Halter in a debate in April.

Halter countered that the unions had soured on Lincoln.

"They felt that you have turned your back on working men and women in Arkansas," Halter said.

The fight between the two has turned into a high-stakes battle marked by a barrage of attack ads and a daily string of dueling news releases and statements between the two camps.

Both have bemoaned the increasingly negative tone of the campaign. Halter at a recent debate said he had asked his campaign to shut down a Web site that referred to Lincoln as "Bailout Blanche," and asked Lincoln to stop ads and campaign materials calling him "Dollar Bill Halter."

"I think it's beneath the dignity of a United States senator," Halter said.

Lincoln said she wanted a more positive campaign, but that Halter's business ties were fair game for criticism.

"In terms of ads, it's important, I have a record and I'm proud of my record in Arkansas. ... The point is, Bill doesn't have that kind of a record," Lincoln said. "But he does have a record, and it's important for people to know about that record."

The two have also tangled over Social Security and over Lincoln's acceptance of contributions from Goldman Sachs, the major investment bank facing federal fraud charges.

Lincoln last week began sending mailers out criticizing Halter for advocating a plan to invest a "small share of Social Security" revenues in the stock market.

Clinton had called in 1999 for spending 62 percent of government surpluses an estimated $2.76 trillion to bolster Social Security's cash reserves. He wanted the government to invest about $700 billion of the cash in the stock market to try to increase its value. The mailer by Lincoln referred to Halter's "dangerous plan for Social Security."

Lincoln, however, had expressed support for the same idea. Lincoln had told the Lincoln Journal-Star in Nebraska in 2000 that she supported looking at investing some of the trust fund, but said it was risky to invest part of the payroll tax privately.

Halter has targeted Lincoln over the Goldman Sachs contributions. Lincoln recently announced she would return $7,500 she received from the bank's political action committee, and Halter has called on her to return $29,000 in contributions she's received linked to Goldman Sachs while in office.

While he has little chance of winning the nomination, Morrison has benefitted from the battle between Lincoln and Halter. A farm loan consultant who describes himself as a conservative Democrat, Morrison has called for a national sales tax and for a repeal of the federal health care overhaul.

While confounding Democratic voters with those statements, he's simultaneously amused them. He earned the loudest applause of the three at their first debate when he quipped: "I used to think talk was cheap, but then I saw what Channel 7 charges for ads."

Morrison has defended his credentials as a Democrat, but his rhetoric has often sounded more at home in a GOP primary.

"(President Barack Obama) is a socialist," Morrison said in a recent interview. "If I'm elected, I intend to criticize him every day of the week."

How Senate Republican contenders stack up against Boxer

WASHINGTON — With the economy sputtering, unemployment stuck in double digits and anxiety running high over the nation's staggering debt, this is not a good year for an incumbent U.S. senator to be up for re-election. That's certainly the case for California's three-term Sen. Barbara Boxer, a polarizing Democrat whose approval ratings rarely have topped 50 percent even in the best of times.

But if the opportunity appears ripe for a Republican takeover of a seat Boxer has held for almost two decades, less clear is which GOP candidate has the best chance of pulling it off. Is it former congressman Tom Campbell, whose stance favoring abortion rights would deprive Boxer of an issue she's used to batter past GOP opponents? Or would Carly Fiorina — the first female after a succession of male opponents that Boxer has dismantled — give the senator the biggest fits? And then there's conservative state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, a favorite of party activists, who may be best able to harness "tea party" anger at Washington.

Polls show Campbell with a lead over Fiorina ranging from low single digits to double digits heading into the campaign's final month. DeVore has consistently lagged in third place, although one recent poll showed him within striking distance of second. Still, with the bulk of TV and mail advertising yet to come, and a plurality of voters still up for grabs, the race remains highly fluid.

With the June 8 primary just a few weeks away, here's a look at the strengths and vulnerabilities each of the GOP contenders would bring to a general election matchup with Boxer, informed by interviews with campaign aides and outside political observers.

Tom Campbell

Best case: Campbell's biggest weakness in the primary campaign — his liberal positions on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, and a pragmatic streak when it comes to taxes — could be among his greatest strengths in a general election. Simply put, he is less ideological than Boxer's past opponents, and would likely attract more support from independent voters who tend to sway general elections.

Take abortion rights, which Campbell favors. Boxer has used the abortion issue in past races to rally women and paint her GOP opponents as extremists. That wouldn't be possible with Campbell.

As a Ph.D. in economics who was once ranked among the most fiscally conservative members of Congress, Campbell would also have a compelling case to make that he'd be a strong steward of the nation's finances — a potentially potent advantage against the liberal Boxer. His willingness to endorse tax increases (as he did last year as a candidate for governor, to help stave off devastating cuts to public schools), which has created a huge target for his primary opponents, would likely fade in the general election. And he's the only GOP contender with elected experience in Washington.

Cause for concern: Campbell has run twice for Senate and lost both times — in a 1992 GOP primary (Boxer won the general election), and in 2000, when he was crushed by Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Those losses, combined with his decision to abandon the governor's race early this year, raise doubts about his viability as a statewide candidate.

There are also questions about whether Campbell — a mild-mannered law professor who's about as nice a politician as you're likely to find — has the toughness to go toe-to-toe with Boxer, a notoriously scrappy, no-nonsense campaigner.

Money is another potential weakness. Though he's raised a decent amount of money in the primary, it pales in comparison to Boxer's multimillion-dollar haul. Finally, Campbell has come under attack for voting to cut economic aid to Israel and for defending a Florida professor aligned with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Those problems could continue to haunt him in the general election.

Upshot: His political profile — mostly conservative on fiscal issues, liberal on social issues — would give him a leg up with key independent voters. But his professorial demeanor and fundraising prowess would be major question marks in a matchup against the scrappy and well-funded Boxer.

Carly Fiorina

Best case: It would be unfair to Fiorina to suggest that her gender would be one of her main assets in the general election, but there is no question that it would present a unique challenge for Boxer — who stormed into the Senate in 1992 with a full-throated appeal to women and has followed that pattern against male challengers since. If Fiorina can manage to peel off even a modest amount of Boxer's female support, it would make the senator's path to victory that much narrower.

Gender aside, Fiorina has a number of attributes that make her a potentially tough opponent for Boxer. She is an engaging public speaker with a commanding stage presence. She does not shy away from a fight. And she has a compelling career arc, having risen from law school dropout to secretary to first female CEO of a Fortune 20 company.

But perhaps most threatening to Boxer is Fiorina's personal checkbook. Fiorina has the wherewithal to pump millions of her own dollars into the campaign, at least partially offsetting Boxer's natural fundraising advantage. As a former surrogate for John McCain's presidential campaign in 2008, Fiorina is also plugged into the fundraising network of the national Republican Party establishment.

Cause for concern: Fiorina's record at HP makes her a sitting target for political opponents. At a time of record unemployment in California, she will have to explain why she laid off almost 33,000 employees, sent jobs overseas and walked away with a $21 million severance package after she was fired. Fiorina's ability to counter that narrative with a more positive story — of, by her account, a visionary who revitalized a struggling company — will take sustained advertising, which is why money is so important.

Other potential weaknesses that Boxer might exploit include Fiorina's opposition to abortion rights and her failure to vote in most elections, which fuels suspicions that her foray into politics is more about ego gratification than some larger cause.

Upshot: Personal wealth, charisma, and gender make her a potentially formidable opponent, but her background at HP will be a difficult sell.

Chuck DeVore

Best case: As the GOP candidate with unquestioned conservative credentials, DeVore is perhaps best positioned to tap into Republican voter anger at Washington. If he can somehow manage to squeak by Campbell and Fiorina in the primary, his best-case scenario would be something along the lines of what has unfolded in Florida this spring, where conservative Marco Rubio has stormed into serious contention for a Senate seat on the back of the tea party movement. If DeVore could show he had a legitimate shot at beating Boxer, that could boost his national fundraising efforts, which have yet to take off. DeVore also has a military background and worked in the Defense Department under President Reagan.

Cause for concern: DeVore is probably the candidate Boxer would most welcome as her opponent. His staunch conservative profile on issues ranging from abortion to immigration would allow her to argue that he is outside the political mainstream in California, a case she has made successfully against past opponents.

Upshot: Ideologically, he's the purest of the GOP bunch, but that could spell trouble in a general election.

Of course, Boxer would bring her own set of strengths and vulnerabilities to the race. Her liberal voting record, particularly at a time of growing concern over government spending, will hand plenty of ammunition to her Republican opponent. On the other hand, California remains a solidly Democratic state.

"There are a lot of Republicans who are probably licking their chops," said Darry Sragow, a longtime Democratic strategist who is not involved in the race. "But Barbara Boxer is a tough and fearless campaigner, and she's never taken re-election for granted."

Source