Less than a week before their Senate primary, Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter are preparing for their acrimonious contest to head into overtime.
With recent polls showing Lincoln with less than the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid a runoff as a relatively unknown conservative candidate has gained his support at her expense, Arkansas observers say a second election on June 8 between the two top finishers is increasingly likely.
“Certainly, a runoff election remains a distinct possibility,” acknowledged Lincoln campaign manager Steve Patterson in a memo. “The fact that Senator Lincoln has withstood two months of negative attacks from well-funded outside groups and still remains in a strong position is a testament to her toughness and popularity among Arkansas voters,” he added.
Meanwhile, Halter’s campaign is raising expectations for Lincoln, who held a 12-point lead over Halter in a Mason-Dixon survey released last week.
“It’s a huge defeat for Sen. Lincoln if she ends up in a runoff. It means more than half of Arkansas primary voters decided against a sitting U.S. Senator, which means they are clearly ready for a change,” said Halter spokeswoman Laura Chapin.
D.C. Morrison, who is running as a conservative alternative opposed to the Democratic health care overhaul and supportive of the FAIR tax, may be gaining more traction than expected because of the nasty over-the-airwaves back-and-forth between Lincoln and Halter.
The Lincoln campaign estimates that outside labor groups like AFSCME, SEIU and the Communication Workers of America, have spent nearly $3.7 million dollars on ads targeting the second term senator. The liberal group Bold Progressives blasted an e-mail to activists Wednesday asking them to add another $125,000 to that total to help fund Halter’s get-out-the-vote operation.
Meanwhile, the Halter campaign filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission this week asking the Virginia-based group Americans for Job Security reveal who is funding its hard-hitting ad that features Indians thanking the candidate for “outsourcing jobs” to their country.
“I suspect there’s a small but potentially crucial percentage of Democratic primary voters who have been turned off by the two top contenders,” said Paul Berry, a longtime Little Rock lobbyist who is supporting Lincoln. “The campaign ads have been so negative, it will not surprise me if there is a runoff. It’s the third candidate who has improved.”
Alan Hughes, the president of the state’s AFL-CIO, agreed that the little known Morrison could play a critical role in Tuesday’s outcome.
“With Morrison in right now, I think he’s going to take enough from her that yeah, we’ll keep her under 50 percent. I can’t see not having a runoff with three candidates in,” Hughes said.
One state official, who did not want to be identified prognosticating, said the bottom line is that “Lincoln’s campaign is hoping to eke out 50 percent and Halter’s campaign is praying for a runoff.”
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article misidentified the group that emailed activists Wednesday on behalf of Halter.
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