WASHINGTON — These were supposed to be the worst of times for New York Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand, the times when she was supposed to be in a pitched fight for the Democratic nomination while awaiting a November battle against a Republican named Giuliani or Pataki or King.
Instead, she's breezing toward the nomination and a likely November battle against a guy named Blakeman or Malpass or DioGuardi.
If you just found yourself muttering "Who dat?" or "What gives?" you're not alone.
"It's a real head-scratcher," said Baruch College political scientist Doug Muzzio. "She looks really vulnerable — but uh-uh."
Fifteen months into her two-year term as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's appointed successor, Gillibrand is still so new to statewide politics that 41 percent of respondents in a Siena College poll last month said they either didn't know her or had no opinion about her.
Yet there's no doubt, political pros say, that she's now the favorite to win the special election in November for the last two years of Clinton's term.
Strong friends and strong fundraising, along with the state's heavy Democratic enrollment advantage and the unwillingness of big-name Republicans to take her on, have reversed the fortunes of a senator whose shelf life had been questioned since Day One.
"There's no question: It is going to be an uphill battle" to beat her, said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg.
Incongruously, Siena's latest poll on the race, in mid-April, showed that 40 percent of New Yorkers said they preferred someone other than Gillibrand in November. Thirty-three percent said they didn't know, and a mere 27 percent stood with the former congresswoman from the Hudson Valley.
Those poll numbers, however, ignore the political realities that have made Gillibrand surprisingly strong.
First and foremost, thanks to friends in high places, she's lacking the kind of Democratic primary challenge that many expected. Pressure from the White House prompted potential candidates such as Rep. Steve Israel, D-Hauppage, to forgo the race.
And in early March, former Tennessee Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. took a pass on it, too, saying that challenging Gillibrand might help Republicans win the seat.
Ford also referred to a "campaign to bully me out of the race," and when asked about such pressure from above last week, Democratic National Chairman Tim Kaine defended clearing the path for Gillibrand.
"I think the reason it was important was that she had been an ally of the president on key issues. She was willing to do the heavy lifting for the president on issues like the economic recovery and health care and other issues, as well," Kaine said. "And if somebody's fighting and has your back, then you need to have their back."
Planning TV ad blitz
Indeed, Gillibrand has remained a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate despite the wavering public mood about federal spending and health care.
She also has been a strong fundraiser, amassing $6 million as of March 31 for the start of her campaign. Law firms and investment banks provided her with more money than any other industries, according to a Center for Responsive Politics analysis of federal campaign data.
"Throughout her career, the senator has raised the resources necessary to win, and this campaign will be no different," said campaign spokesman Glen Caplin. "She is proud to have over 10,000 donors who share her vision for the future of New York and have contributed to her campaign."
| Where Gillibrand gets her campaign cash | ||||
| Source | Amount donated | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers, law firms | $1,293,694 | |||
| Securities, investment | $631,250 | |||
| Retirees | $277,197 | |||
| Real estate | $267,500 | |||
| Miscellaneous finance | $230,700 | |||
| Women's groups | $223,874 | |||
| Entertainment industry | $213,875 | |||
| Lobbyists | $177,242 | |||
| Business services firms | $150,700 | |||
| Computers, Internet companies | $138,195 | |||
| Source: Center for Responsive Politics compilation of federal campaign finance data for the 2010 special Senate election | ||||
Democratic sources in the state expect her to use that money shortly to begin a television advertising campaign that's likely to portray her as a hardworking senator/mom with a deep involvement in issues touching the state's families.
Gillibrand confidants believe that TV ads can do what news coverage cannot: create a clear, positive image of the senator in the voters' minds.
Still, the poll numbers have cause for concern. Notably, even against a little-known opponent such as former Nassau County Legislator Bruce A. Blakeman, she failed to crack the 50 percent mark in the recent Siena poll.
"I think people are still getting to know Sen. Gillibrand," Caplin said. "And when they do, they will see that she takes a back seat to nobody in fighting for New York."
Big-name Republicans such as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Gov. George E. Pataki surely could have raised the funds to counter Gillibrand's coming media blitz, but they passed on the race, as did a veteran GOP congressman, Peter T. King of Long Island.
"The problem is, they don't have a team," Muzzio said of the Republicans. "They don't have a bench" from which to draw strong potential candidates.
Asked why he had not been able to recruit a big-name GOP candidate, the head of the GOP's Senate campaign committee, Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, noted that the filing deadline for the race had not yet passed. He said he still had not given up on fielding a strong challenger to Gillibrand.
"I think this will not be so much a competition ... between the candidates, but a referendum on the size of the federal government," Cornyn said. "Kirsten Gillibrand is extremely vulnerable. Not only is she not particularly well-known, she is vulnerable for voting in lock step with the Obama administration. So I think we still have a shot there."
At this point, three Republican candidates — who will seek the party's nod at its state convention in June, and perhaps in a September primary — are vying to challenge Gillibrand:
• Blakeman, 54, a longtime Long Island politician who ran unsuccessfully for state comptroller in 1998. He is now a lawyer in New York City.
The first of the three candidates to jump into the field, Blakeman has lined up endorsements from a host of politicians from across the state, including King and former three-term GOP Sen. Alfonse M. D'Amato.
Using personal funds
Blakeman, however, had only $317,683 on hand as of March 31. He did not respond to a request to comment, but in a visit to Buffalo in March, he said he can overcome the Democratic enrollment advantage of 25 percentage points that gives Gillibrand a head start.
"It's doable because people are angry and frustrated about the future of this country," he said, pointing to concern over deficits and government spending. "What's important is economic development and job creation."
• David R. Malpass, 54, a New York economist who held mid-level appointments in the administrations of Presidents Ronald and George H.W. Bush. He believes that the time is right for a proven budget hawk to be elected to the Senate.
Malpass sports support from Jimmy Kemp, a son of the late Rep. Jack F. Kemp, R-Hamburg, and formal endorsements from one-time presidential candidate Steve Forbes and one-time gubernatorial candidate John J. Faso. Not surprisingly, Malpass bills himself as a "pro-growth, pro-jobs fiscal conservative" in the Kemp mold.
"The country is facing a huge problem in terms of Washington spending," he said. "And it's killing jobs in New York State."
Malpass had $1.07 million on hand for his race as of March 31, but $1 million of it had come from his own personal funds.
• Joseph J. DioGuardi, 70, the first practicing certified public accountant elected to Congress. After serving two terms, he was defeated in 1988. He later wrote a book, "Unaccountable Congress," and founded a nonprofit, Truth in Government, that reveals how Congress allocates federal funds.
Like Malpass, he's making fiscal responsibility a centerpiece of his campaign.
"We're mortgaging the next generation," he said.
DioGuardi had $974,223 on hand for his campaign as of March 31, but $946,243 of it came from his own funds. His effort has resonated with Conservative Party leaders statewide, and many have endorsed him.
Still, the candidate's daughter — "American Idol" judge Kara DioGuardi — is better known than he is.
"I'm proud of her, and she's proud of me," DioGuardi said. "She followed her dream, and now she's supporting me as I follow mine."
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