Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/26-28 results)
Democratic primary, likely Democratic voters, MoE 5%
Blanche Lincoln (D) 46 (43)
Bill Halter (D) 37 (35)
D.C. Morrison 6 (7)
Undecided 11 (15)
Seems like much treading water compared to two weeks ago, both candidates have inched up. Lincoln will desperately try to capture enough of that undecided vote to get her above 50 percent and avoid the runoff. I'll call it right now -- she won't get to 50. I suspect she'll be around 44-45 percent.
Now remember that the Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Job Security have been spending millions in sleazy ads, while Lincoln herself has been hurling everything up against the wall, hoping something would stick. On the other side, labor unions have been pummeling Lincoln. And yet...
Favorable/Unfavorable among likely Democratic primary voters
Blanche Lincoln 61/35 (59/33)
Bill Halter 65/17 (66/14)
Halter still has the edge on favorabilities -- his trump card in the primary (and runoff). But beyond that, look a the trend lines. Primary voters are completely ignoring all the mud on the airwaves. The millions spent are having ZERO impact on the primary. I don't think I've ever seen anything like this.
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